The latest Cotality data shows property values falling across South East Queensland. At the same time, buyers are paying record prices for homes from Brisbane to Noosa. Both tell us something important about the market.
South East Queensland property values are falling for the first time in years.
Someone forgot to tell the buyers paying record prices.
Queensland’s residential price record was smashed in late August when two adjoining waterfront properties at 32-34 Noosa Parade sold for $40 million.
Days earlier, a Gold Coast family paid $11.5 million for a Broadbeach penthouse before the development had even launched publicly.
In Brisbane, an Ascot Queenslander sold off market for $4.71 million, $860,000 more than it achieved just 12 months earlier. Nothing had been renovated, extended or repainted.
So, what is happening to the South East Queensland market?
What The Latest Data Says
According to Cotality’s September Home Value Index, Brisbane property values fell 1 per cent in August and 2.7 per cent across winter.
The city’s median now sits at $1,080,142.
Regional Queensland values also fell 0.5 per cent during August and 1.3 percent over the quarter.
Cotality’s latest regional analysis recorded quarterly declines of 0.8 percent on the Gold Coast and 0.5 per cent on the Sunshine Coast. It was the first time values across those markets had fallen since early 2023.
Buyer activity has also slowed.
Cotality estimates Brisbane sales volumes are now more than 20 per cent lower than they were a year ago. Across the capital cities, advertised property supply is 24 per cent higher than last year.
Buyers have more homes to choose from, less pressure to act immediately and greater power to negotiate.
But that is only one side of the market.
Values Are Down Now, But Still Well Above Last Year
Despite falling over the past three months, Brisbane dwelling values remain 10.8 per cent higher than they were one year ago.
House values are up 10.3 per cent annually, while unit values have increased 13.2 per cent.
Regional Queensland values remain 9.1 per cent higher over the year.
That means a property can sell for considerably more than its previous price while the broader market is moving backwards.
The $4.71 million sale of 29 Ascot Street is a clear example. Its $860,000 increase reflected the growth recorded during the previous 12 months, as well as ongoing demand for character homes on substantial land in tightly held suburbs.
It was not the only strong Brisbane result.
A home at 5 Tennyson Street, Norman Park, sold for $4.25 million and set a new street record after 24 days on the market.
At Hawthorne, 57 Amy Street sold for $4.41 million after attracting more than 102 buyer groups.
Rare Homes Are Operating in Their Own Market
Record sales do not mean every home in South East Queensland is increasing in value.
They show what can happen when several buyers compete for something they cannot easily find elsewhere.
The $40 million Noosa sale comprised two adjoining waterfront blocks spanning 1,222sqm, with two private jetties. There are only a handful of comparable holdings on the Noosa waterways.
Another Noosa home at 31 Witta Circle recently sold for $19.2 million, delivering a $1.6 million increase in a single year.
In the Noosa Hinterland, a 151.8-hectare estate at 1229 Cooroy Belli Creek Road sold for $10.234 million in 20 days. Six buyer groups inspected during the first week, two written offers followed in the second and the propertywas under contract by the third.
On the Gold Coast, the $11.5 million Camilla penthouse in Broadbeach sold before any advertising or public sales campaign had begun.
These properties are not being priced against hundreds of alternatives.
Their value is being decided by the small number of buyers who want them and the even smaller number of comparable properties available.
Buyers Haven’t Disappeared
The South East Queensland market is not moving uniformly anymore.
Overpriced homes and properties with obvious compromises are taking longer to sell. Buyers know they have more choice and are prepared to wait.
But when the right home appears, those same buyers can move quickly and pay beyond the previous benchmark.
This is particularly evident among upgraders and premium owner-occupiers looking for established family homes, larger landholdings, waterfront positions and properties requiring little additional work.
Limited new housing supply is also helping contain the downturn. Cotality said construction costs, capacity constraints and development feasibility were continuing to restrict the number of new homes being completed.
What This Means for Spring
South East Queensland has changed from a market where almost every property benefited from rising prices to one where the individual home and its sales campaign carry far more weight.
Sellers can no longer assume the market will deliver the result for them.
Pricing, preparation, access to qualified buyers and negotiation will have a greater impact.
Buyers have more leverage across ordinary stock, but they may still face strong competition for homes that are difficult to replace.
